Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2B 0x2b4c…f1cc sports 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,182 (+95%) realized +$1,183 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate67%80W / 39L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$11
sports 27% +$2,586
other 3% +$4
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +17.0% +5.9% 71% 56% -6.2%
≤30d 48 -0.0% -9.6% 60% 48% -7.5%
≤90d 119 +23.8% +12.0% 67% 52% +199.1%
all 119 +23.8% +12.0% 67% 52% +199.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 52% +199.1%
10% +1.3% 45% +170.4%
15% -8.5% 40% +144.3%
20% -17.4% 38% +120.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +230% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +230% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$7 · ×5.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.1 per $1 lost it wins $11.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$1,183
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses80 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)119 / 124
History coverage48d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Chun-Hsin Tseng 58¢ 84¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+46%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 54¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 63¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 44¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$30 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$26 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$34 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $137 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$18 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$20 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $73 +$90 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$5 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Amer Sports (AS) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Ding Cuts (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Grou Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $2 +$2 +70%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $2 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 17 $2 +$3 +165%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SK Sturm Graz win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$2 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $92 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $32 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $42 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $64 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $142 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $13 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $58 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.72 · official $8.72 (match) · 239 history records