Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2b4b…3528 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$743 (-14%) realized −$757 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,063
7 days−$755
14 days−$561
30 days−$561
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$85
sports 36% −$347
world 9% $0
crypto 8% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -28.6% -35.4% 33% 33% -30.2%
≤30d 25 -9.7% -18.3% 40% 40% -22.7%
≤90d 26 -13.2% -21.5% 38% 38% -25.9%
all 26 -13.2% -21.5% 38% 38% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 38% -25.9%
10% -29.0% 38% -32.9%
15% -35.8% 19% -39.4%
20% -42.1% 15% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$105 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$757
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 36
History coverage228d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 62¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 60¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$134 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $599 +$209 +35%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $102 −$18 -18%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $189 −$187 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 15 $121 −$103 -85%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $526 −$338 -64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $449 −$449 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$4 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $202 −$100 -50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $30 +$9 +31%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $60 +$143 +238%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $15 +$34 +220%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $16 −$1 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 +$17 +114%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $500 +$144 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) May 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $51 51m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 51m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $217 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $224 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $222 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $362 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $599 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 26¢ $258 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 20¢ $250 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 34h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $10 38h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 25¢ $29 38h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 22¢ $10 38h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 47¢ $55 38h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 42¢ $102 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 40¢ $61 39h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $189 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $188 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $526 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $93 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 26¢ $20 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Wil BUY 23¢ $31 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $305 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Englan BUY $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.23 · official $118.47 · 84 history records