Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:59:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b48…727c crypto 481 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,981 (+11%) realized +$1,981 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%271W / 210L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day116.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$512
7 days+$1,016
14 days+$1,759
30 days+$1,759
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,759
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -6.4% -15.3% 52% 48% +3.9%
≤30d 481 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 49% -0.4%
≤90d 481 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 49% -0.4%
all 481 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 49% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 49% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 43% -9.9%
15% -28.4% 41% -18.6%
20% -35.4% 40% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$29 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,981
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses271 / 210
Open positions0
Markets (closed)481 / 481
History coverage12d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day116.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 481 Trades
no open positions (148 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $213 +$142 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $67 +$62 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $19 +$20 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$11 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $28 +$24 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$12 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $38 +$37 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$23 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$13 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$17 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$41 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$20 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$7 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $148 +$112 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $71 +$64 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $18 +$17 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$11 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1874 history records