Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b48…8774 crypto 841 markets active 0h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$238 (-1%) realized −$237 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate67%566W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$441
14 days+$423
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$342
other 1% −$98
finance 0% $0
world 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +21.2% +9.6% 65% 65% +10.7%
≤30d 130 -2.2% -11.5% 57% 53% -5.8%
≤90d 468 -3.3% -12.5% 69% 40% -6.9%
all 840 -5.9% -14.8% 67% 40% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 40% -10.6%
10% -23.0% 27% -19.2%
15% -30.4% 21% -27.0%
20% -37.2% 15% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$22 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$237
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses566 / 274
Open positions1
Markets (closed)840 / 841
History coverage164d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 840 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 55¢ 53¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$10 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $69 +$54 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $60 +$45 +75%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$28 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$35 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$24 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $85 +$69 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$39 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$54 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$33 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $68 −$66 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$31 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$97 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$5 -41%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$34 +91%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$36 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$19 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$27 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$64 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$32 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +89%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$31 -90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$45 +87%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$24 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$7 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$34 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$42 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $55 +$44 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $38 −$37 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$17 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$4 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$4 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $76 −$63 -83%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $69 +$51 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$20 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $113 +$88 +77%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $73 +$41 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $139 +$107 +77%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $77 +$64 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $42 +$35 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $83 −$81 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $47 +$39 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $69 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $60 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $34 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $25 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $25 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $49 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $85 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $46 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $65 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $37 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $68 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $37 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $101 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $37 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $36 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $39 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.51 · official $19.51 (match) · 2117 history records