Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b47…27fe other 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$215 (-2%) realized +$16 · open −$231
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%58W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$884
7 days+$932
14 days+$932
30 days+$932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$750
world 22% −$44
crypto 9% −$38
culture 7% −$546
tech 5% +$40
politics 4% +$51
finance 2% +$34
sports 1% −$27
economics 0% −$22
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.7% -2.5% 67% 67% +11.3%
≤30d 15 +7.7% -2.5% 67% 67% +11.3%
≤90d 24 -12.3% -20.7% 54% 54% +10.7%
all 125 -14.7% -22.8% 46% 36% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 36% -5.0%
10% -30.2% 32% -14.1%
15% -36.9% 26% -22.4%
20% -43.1% 21% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$22 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$231
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses58 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions26
Markets (closed)125 / 151
History coverage165d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 70¢ 77¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes 40¢ 13¢ $100 $32 −$67 (-67%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes 19¢ $100 $20 −$80 (-80%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 28¢ 52¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+86%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 51¢ 39¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 35¢ 24¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? Yes $50 $4 −$46 (-91%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 12¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 64¢ 16¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-76%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 58¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 48¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $635 +$492 +78%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $811 −$178 -22%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$8 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $721 +$101 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $445 +$276 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $315 +$130 +41%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $245 +$71 +29%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $176 +$70 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 −$158 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$58 +57%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $100 +$103 +103%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 14 $100 +$41 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 13 $7 +$2 +30%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $2 +$2 +82%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on Fe Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 19 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 01 $10 +$4 +36%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 28 $5 −$1 -15%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Feb 28 $25 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $1 $0 -45%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 28 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 28 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 28 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 28 $100 +$92 +92%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,127 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 55¢ $635 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $634 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $811 3h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $721 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $445 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 91¢ $13 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $245 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $75 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $160 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 67d
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? BUY No 77¢ $7 71d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY No 21¢ $5 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 83d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 57¢ $5 110d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 110d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 110d
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards BUY Yes $1 111d
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw BUY Yes $1 111d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? SELL US 42¢ $14 111d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? BUY US 31¢ $10 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.37 · official $166.37 (match) · 481 history records