Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2b46…684d sports 788 markets active 1d ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$297,283 (+28%) realized +$294,919 · open +$2,364
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%485W / 300L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,326per market
Trades / day51.9pace
Fees−$11,260est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$6,358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$68,318
other 20% +$20,650
politics 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -7.5% -16.3% 53% 41% -0.3%
≤30d 359 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 45% +1.8%
≤90d 785 +0.2% -9.4% 62% 49% -1.8%
all 785 +0.2% -9.4% 62% 49% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 49% -1.8%
10% -18.1% 33% -11.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 28% -19.8%
20% -33.2% 24% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,250) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$737 vs −$902 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$6,358
Realized+$294,919
Unrealized+$2,364
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses485 / 300
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$11,260
Open positions3
Markets (closed)785 / 788
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$1,326
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 785 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 35¢ 60¢ $3,297 $5,636 +$2,339 (+71%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 50¢ $507 $487 −$21 (-4%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 57¢ 70¢ $190 $235 +$45 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Griekspoor vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $267 +$77 +29%
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell Jun 16 $58 +$44 +76%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $167 +$54 +32%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $2,082 +$3,440 +165%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$18 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $29,494 −$2,789 -10%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 16 $327 −$327 -100%
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $1,552 −$52 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $317 +$138 +44%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Jun 15 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $184 +$12 +6%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $68 +$2 +2%
Will Kristoffer Reitan finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian O Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Ca Jun 14 $69 +$1 +2%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $152 +$26 +17%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $2,909 +$2,823 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $219 −$219 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $215 −$215 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $206 −$206 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $299 −$299 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 14 $245 −$245 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $758 −$758 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $1,860 −$1,860 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $1,364 −$1,364 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 14 $74 +$134 +181%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 14 $18 +$3 +18%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $4,144 +$3,623 +87%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 14 $899 +$905 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $1,328 −$1,043 -78%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $1,770 +$991 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $118 +$74 +63%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $7,050 +$6,909 +98%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 14 $2,240 +$310 +14%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 14 $118 +$17 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8,932 +$3,774 +42%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $954 −$520 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $57 +$49 +86%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $86 +$84 +98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $1,667 +$833 +50%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 14 $57 +$11 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $130 +$70 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 14 $92 +$7 +7%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-3.5) Jun 14 $117 +$13 +11%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) Jun 14 $26 +$1 +4%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $15,309 34h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $653 34h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2,199 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2,173 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $869 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $2,174 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 23¢ $870 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 23¢ $2,174 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $860 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $788 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $394 35h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $762 35h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $377 35h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $942 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $687 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $343 35h
Chris Wood: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $167 35h
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell BUY Birrell 56¢ $58 35h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 77¢ $61 36h
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $517 46h
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $517 46h
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $517 46h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 69¢ $317 2d
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $40 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 57¢ $193 2d
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $152 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $23 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 21¢ $52 2d
Griekspoor vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 77¢ $267 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 80¢ $825 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,358.07 · official $6,358.07 (match) · 3500 history records