Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2B 0x2b46…b4b5 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+3%) realized +$1 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$59
other 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,945
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 48¢ $500 $528 +$28 (+6%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $500 $484 −$16 (-3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Under 45¢ 46¢ $400 $404 +$4 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 54¢ $285 $327 +$42 (+15%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $205 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $87 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Under 19¢ $206 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $407 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $508 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $508 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,944.56 · official $1,944.56 (match) · 9 history records