Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2b45…d5f4
sports · 496 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,260 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,231 · open −$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$302
Realized−$5,231
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses343 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)492 / 496
History coverage166d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 4 History 492 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Under 91¢ 81¢ $200 $178 −$22 (-11%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 80¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Brazil 96¢ 95¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 95¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $280 +$3 +1%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $225 +$10 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $40 +$12 +29%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $50 +$12 +24%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 +$39 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$7 -34%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $110 +$9 +8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $30 +$6 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$5 +11%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $50 +$3 +5%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 11 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 +$6 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Apr 02 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma Mar 31 $140 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 30? Mar 31 $400 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 30? Mar 31 $40 +$1 +2%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 31 $29 +$15 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 30? Mar 31 $100 +$2 +2%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 30 $50 +$19 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 30? Mar 30 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 30 Mar 30 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on March 30? Mar 30 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Mar 30 $150 $0 +0%
Reyer Venezia vs. Aquila Basket Trento Mar 30 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on Marc Mar 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Mar 30 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 29 Mar 30 $130 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 29? Mar 30 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 29 Mar 30 $154 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on March 29? Mar 30 $421 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 84°F or higher on March Mar 30 $770 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on March 29? Mar 30 $30 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 29? Mar 30 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 29? Mar 29 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Mar 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 29 $32 +$21 +67%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Shanghai Sharks Mar 29 $47 +$10 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 28? Mar 29 $80 +$2 +2%
Kings vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Mar 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Stars: O/U 5.5 Mar 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-7.5) Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Nets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 218.5 Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Open: Iva Jovic vs Talia Gibson Mar 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% −$2,670
weather 15% +$66
other 11% −$1,450
culture 3% −$1,206
world 2% +$16
crypto 1% +$6
politics 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 96¢ $21 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $201 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $60 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $280 8h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic 100¢ $236 8h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 89¢ $50 8h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 85¢ $20 8h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 98¢ $50 8h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 99¢ $100 8h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 99¢ $5 8h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 80¢ $50 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 23h
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) BUY United States 98¢ $50 23h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $40 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $10 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $20 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $30 30h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 54¢ $13 33h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 80¢ $20 33h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 84¢ $30 45h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 94¢ $30 45h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 98¢ $50 45h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 84¢ $30 45h
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Thiago Cigarran 96¢ $20 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 95¢ $50 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $50 2d
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) BUY Spurs 100¢ $200 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.2% -8.5% 83% 39% -6.0%
≤30d 18 +1.2% -8.5% 83% 39% -6.0%
≤90d 206 -4.5% -13.6% 64% 37% -27.2%
all 492 -3.0% -12.2% 70% 30% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 30% -18.2%
10% -20.6% 22% -26.0%
15% -28.3% 18% -33.2%
20% -35.3% 13% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.20 · official $302.20 (match) · 1223 history records