Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b43…7829 crypto 341 markets active 10h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$787 (-13%) realized −$787 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%184W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$271
14 days−$298
30 days−$353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,148
sports 4% −$46
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -13.0% -21.3% 40% 38% -26.0%
≤30d 68 -18.4% -26.2% 40% 35% -25.4%
≤90d 341 -9.3% -18.0% 54% 47% -28.0%
all 341 -9.3% -18.0% 54% 47% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 47% -28.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 38% -34.9%
15% -33.0% 22% -41.2%
20% -39.5% 16% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$787
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses184 / 157
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)341 / 341
History coverage45d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 341 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $35 −$34 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $34 +$38 +111%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $36 +$164 +453%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $51 −$45 -88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 24? Jun 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$13 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $58 −$43 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 19 $185 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$8 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $88 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$11 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 19 $196 −$45 -23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 19 $91 −$11 -13%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 +$26 +160%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 +$22 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 69¢ $128 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 7¢ $18 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 7¢ $33 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 29¢ $71 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 13¢ $34 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 16h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $43 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY No 0¢ $1 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY No 0¢ $1 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY No 0¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $8 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1755 history records