Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b3c…9f22 sports 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,775 (-11%) realized −$1,769 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%78W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$251est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$34
14 days−$582
30 days−$2,671
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,871
other 2% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.5% -34.4% 40% 40% -30.1%
≤30d 105 -30.0% -36.7% 34% 33% -34.8%
≤90d 190 -12.4% -20.7% 41% 40% -20.1%
all 190 -12.4% -20.7% 41% 40% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 40% -20.1%
10% -28.3% 40% -27.7%
15% -35.3% 40% -34.7%
20% -41.6% 39% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$77 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized−$1,769
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses78 / 112
Est. fees paid−$251
Open positions9
Markets (closed)190 / 199
History coverage51d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage REJECT 61¢ 58¢ $63 $60 −$3 (-4%)
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims) Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ 64¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Under 49¢ 52¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+5%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 58¢ 56¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage AGELITE 29¢ 28¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 66¢ 68¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 56¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 52¢ 52¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Under 54¢ 44¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 26 $31 +$27 +86%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $31 +$24 +76%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) Jun 26 $21 −$21 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $21 −$21 -98%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 18 $64 −$63 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 18 $102 −$2 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $122 −$120 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $85 −$83 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $103 −$102 -99%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) Jun 16 $156 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $106 −$17 -16%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 15 $103 −$21 -20%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $121 −$120 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $122 +$101 +83%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $85 +$140 +165%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 14 $122 −$120 -98%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $122 −$120 -98%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $122 +$89 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $122 +$84 +70%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $121 +$72 +60%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 11 $104 −$102 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $122 +$101 +83%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $121 +$68 +56%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 08 $121 +$69 +57%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $126 −$123 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 07 $84 +$48 +57%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Jodie Burrage vs Anna Blinkova Jun 07 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $84 −$83 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $84 −$83 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $122 +$123 +101%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $122 −$120 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $121 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5) Jun 06 $121 +$67 +55%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League G Jun 06 $103 +$62 +60%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 06 $61 +$169 +276%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 05 $81 −$80 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $61 −$60 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 05 $61 −$6 -10%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 05 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 29¢ $34 1h
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 61¢ $64 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $31 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $31 1h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) BUY PortlandFire 47¢ $21 9h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $42 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $31 9h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ $52 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 66¢ $31 23h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $21 23h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 58¢ $42 23h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $21 23h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $31 23h
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) BUY Power Rangers 52¢ $43 4d
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 45¢ $64 8d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 50¢ $102 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $122 10d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $85 10d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 54¢ $103 10d
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) BUY Team Refuser 65¢ $103 11d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 42¢ $53 11d
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 32¢ $53 11d
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Dandelions 62¢ $103 11d
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) BUY Team Resilience 33¢ $53 11d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 59¢ $53 11d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $121 11d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Game Master 44¢ $122 12d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $122 12d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $85 12d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 44¢ $122 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.56 · official $336.58 (match) · 294 history records