Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2B 0x2b3c…04ad crypto 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$115 (+1%) realized +$105 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%169W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$58
14 days+$69
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$42
world 0% +$7
sports 0% +$22
other 0% −$8
tech 0% +$4
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +8.7% -1.7% 52% 42% -2.6%
≤30d 89 +8.4% -1.9% 54% 45% -2.2%
≤90d 269 -4.3% -13.5% 63% 46% -9.7%
all 269 -4.3% -13.5% 63% 46% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 46% -9.7%
10% -21.7% 32% -18.4%
15% -29.3% 21% -26.3%
20% -36.2% 13% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses169 / 100
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)269 / 283
History coverage70d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+1011%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 93¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 93¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 97¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $77 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.38 · official $33.38 (match) · 831 history records