Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b37…8c0e crypto 57 markets active 3d ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-17%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%28W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$13
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$16
other 5% −$6
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -45.6% -50.8% 36% 18% -42.3%
≤30d 45 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 33% -29.6%
≤90d 57 -13.8% -22.0% 49% 32% -26.9%
all 57 -13.8% -22.0% 49% 32% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 32% -26.9%
10% -29.4% 23% -33.9%
15% -36.3% 18% -40.3%
20% -42.5% 14% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses28 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage31d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 29 $2 +$1 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 29 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 22 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 22 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records