Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2B 0x2b36…d80c sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$297 (+15%) realized +$264 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%42W / 39L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$388
14 days+$264
30 days+$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$100
other 35% −$19
crypto 8% +$98
world 1% +$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +94.3% +75.8% 50% 50% +15.8%
≤30d 81 +56.5% +41.6% 52% 49% +3.9%
≤90d 81 +56.5% +41.6% 52% 49% +3.9%
all 81 +56.5% +41.6% 52% 49% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.6% 49% +3.9%
10% +28.0% 49% -6.0%
15% +15.7% 47% -15.1%
20% +4.3% 44% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late +69% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$23 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$264
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses42 / 39
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage15d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $70 $123 +$53 (+75%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $117 −$115 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $15 +$85 +550%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 −$20 -67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $71 +$50 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $24 +$14 +57%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $35 +$28 +79%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $20 +$23 +113%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 18 $51 +$58 +114%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 +$10 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 +$20 +86%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 +$53 +216%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 +$72 +873%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $41 +$44 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$19 +76%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 +$23 +105%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 +$114 +2214%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $32 +$25 +76%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $40 +$38 +97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$24 +234%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$80 +1547%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $21 +$17 +81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $9 +$35 +383%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$36 +72%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 +$16 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $25 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $71 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $24 23h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 39h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $35 39h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 42h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $41 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $41 42h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 42h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 43h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $109 43h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 45h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $51 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $19 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $9 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $36 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.86 · official $122.86 (match) · 141 history records