Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b36…b103 sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,478 (+7%) realized +$7,478 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate68%60W / 28L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$1,284per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$1,040est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,713
7 days+$10,838
14 days+$10,790
30 days+$5,646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$10,712
other 13% −$3,725
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +29.3% +17.0% 80% 60% +13.7%
≤30d 76 +4.4% -5.5% 64% 59% -4.5%
≤90d 88 +7.9% -2.4% 68% 62% -3.9%
all 88 +7.9% -2.4% 68% 62% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 62% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 53% -13.1%
15% -20.3% 38% -21.5%
20% -28.1% 25% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,523) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$592 vs −$1,018 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,478
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses60 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,040
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage33d
Avg bet$1,284
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,179 +$323 +5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,038 +$1,792 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8,552 −$4,047 -47%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $358 +$219 +61%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4,116 +$5,110 +124%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2,705 +$1,491 +55%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,465 +$1,598 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,083 +$3,410 +111%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3,448 +$248 +7%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2,643 +$769 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $158 +$42 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $834 +$46 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1,026 −$1,015 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,129 +$2,310 +108%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,468 −$1,456 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,248 −$1,201 -96%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,780 −$2 -0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $580 +$419 +72%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $517 −$25 -5%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $154 −$150 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $895 +$228 +26%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $9 +$2 +29%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,126 +$272 +24%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $3,606 +$390 +11%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $103 +$19 +18%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $1,618 −$1,600 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $2,526 −$2,500 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $760 +$380 +50%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $604 +$146 +24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $803 +$844 +105%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $1,422 −$1,400 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $910 +$391 +43%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $710 +$378 +53%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $709 +$42 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $423 +$97 +23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $343 +$271 +79%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $488 +$906 +186%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $1,010 +$488 +48%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $779 +$350 +45%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $1,523 −$694 -46%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $1,611 −$1,600 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $203 +$117 +58%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $1,208 +$171 +14%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $2,017 +$761 +38%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $692 −$685 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 96¢ $172 59m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $6,164 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $110 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $55 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $5,397 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $782 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,830 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $4,038 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $4,504 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $404 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $3,018 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $3,018 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 38h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 79¢ $577 43h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 48¢ $341 43h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 47¢ $17 43h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $3,519 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $94 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $2 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $2 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $2 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $930 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $2 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $300 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $9 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 337 history records