Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b32…5146 sports 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$278 (+3%) realized +$278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%88W / 67L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$187
14 days+$124
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -5.5% -14.5% 53% 50% -21.5%
≤30d 155 +7.7% -2.5% 57% 54% -8.0%
≤90d 155 +7.7% -2.5% 57% 54% -8.0%
all 155 +7.7% -2.5% 57% 54% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 54% -8.0%
10% -11.9% 49% -16.8%
15% -20.4% 40% -24.8%
20% -28.2% 33% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$43 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses88 / 67
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage27d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $56 +$10 +18%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $47 −$9 -20%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$5 +36%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$7 +35%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $39 −$39 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $59 +$5 +9%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$5 +30%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $17 −$16 -93%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $21 +$10 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$11 +549%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $39 +$10 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $59 −$58 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $53 +$45 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$16 +109%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$7 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$19 -94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 +$5 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$5 +24%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $5 +$9 +168%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $121 +$32 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $126 +$91 +72%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $89 −$88 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $201 +$52 +26%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 10 $71 +$108 +152%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $26 +$10 +38%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $48 +$27 +57%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $50 +$18 +36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $52 +$26 +50%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $51 +$33 +66%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $32 +$9 +27%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$8 +78%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $48 +$7 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $67 53m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 84¢ $56 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 100¢ $55 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 90¢ $50 2h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $51 2h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 54¢ $28 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Team Refuser 49¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 53¢ $19 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 73¢ $15 10h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $27 21h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 73¢ $20 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $39 25h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner SELL Carstensz 100¢ $64 25h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 92¢ $59 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 58¢ $20 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $15 27h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 3¢ $1 28h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 41¢ $17 29h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 68¢ $21 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $13 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 15¢ $2 46h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $49 46h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 79¢ $39 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $59 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $98 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $53 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $12 2d
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 39¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $30 2d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 47¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 333 history records