Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b32…90bd other 426 markets active 0h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$702 (-4%) realized −$448 · open −$254
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate55%216W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days−$20
14 days−$18
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$30
sports 21% −$923
crypto 17% +$10
tech 4% −$163
world 2% +$27
politics 0% +$354
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 -9.0% -17.7% 65% 29% -9.9%
≤30d 355 -15.7% -23.7% 55% 30% -10.6%
≤90d 358 -16.0% -24.0% 55% 30% -11.1%
all 394 -9.5% -18.1% 55% 30% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 30% -11.8%
10% -25.9% 12% -20.2%
15% -33.1% 11% -27.9%
20% -39.6% 10% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$535
Realized−$448
Unrealized−$254
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses216 / 178
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions32
Markets (closed)394 / 426
History coverage251d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $210 $63 −$147 (-70%)
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 Yes 73¢ 19¢ $147 $38 −$109 (-74%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? No 92¢ 92¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? No 91¢ 90¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? No 89¢ 90¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? No 89¢ 90¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 78¢ 80¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 52¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? No 41¢ 40¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+18%)
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Yes 32¢ 34¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? No 60¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? No 55¢ 55¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? No 28¢ 28¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? No 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance South Africa 25¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals No 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 46¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 42¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? No 25¢ 26¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? No 35¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 31¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $32 +$8 +25%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $39 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Argentina? Jun 28 $38 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Argentina? Jun 28 $38 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $34 +$6 +16%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $36 +$4 +10%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $23 +$17 +71%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal? Jun 28 $38 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $37 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $38 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $35 +$5 +15%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $36 +$4 +11%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $34 +$6 +18%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 England? Jun 27 $38 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? Jun 27 $39 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $26 +$14 +54%
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 27 $22 −$3 -13%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -99%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$5 +33%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $37 +$3 +9%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $36 +$4 +11%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $37 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $34 +$6 +18%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $36 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $34 +$6 +18%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Spain? Jun 27 $38 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $38 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 27 $37 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? Jun 27 $37 +$3 +9%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $38 +$2 +5%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $36 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $35 +$5 +14%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? Jun 26 $38 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $36 +$4 +11%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $11 +$9 +75%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$40 +203%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 −$7 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $34 −$14 -40%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 26 $35 −$15 -43%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 United States? Jun 26 $37 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $37 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $36 +$4 +12%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $37 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $6 19m
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $17 21m
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 92¢ $25 28m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 52¢ $10 51m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY No 89¢ $36 56m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY No 89¢ $36 56m
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 92¢ $12 1h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $3 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $4 1h
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY No 25¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 24¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY No 25¢ $2 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 21¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $11 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY No 35¢ $6 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $9 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY No 95¢ $38 2h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY No 35¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 28¢ $11 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $6 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $12 2h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.04 · official $535.04 (match) · 1138 history records