Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2b2b…7789 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$429 (-5%) realized −$430 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate85%45W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$401
other 21% +$22
world 18% +$20
tech 9% +$4
politics 7% −$167
economics 6% +$20
sports 1% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 11 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
all 53 -5.6% -14.6% 85% 6% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 6% -14.0%
10% -22.8% 4% -22.3%
15% -30.3% 4% -29.8%
20% -37.1% 4% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$81 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$533
Realized−$430
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses45 / 8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage610d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $210 $210 +$0 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $170 $171 +$1 (+0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 13 $140 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 13 $170 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 13 $211 +$8 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 12 $144 +$5 +4%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 12 $160 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 12 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 20 $200 +$3 +2%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $233 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 01 $259 +$2 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 30 $140 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 30 $340 +$12 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Mar 02 $182 +$1 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? Mar 02 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $188 +$2 +1%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Jan 27 $277 +$13 +5%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026? Jan 27 $180 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 11 $249 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 9? Dec 09 $321 −$319 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in November? Dec 09 $700 +$2 +0%
XRP Up or Down on November 11? Nov 28 $146 +$4 +3%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? Nov 28 $170 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 11? Nov 28 $376 +$3 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 11 $260 +$7 +3%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by October 31? Oct 24 $260 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 16? Oct 21 $250 +$1 +0%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Oct 16 $90 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 16 $160 +$2 +1%
Ethereum above $3,600 on August 8? Sep 04 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 8? Sep 04 $210 +$37 +18%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Aug 08 $45 +$1 +2%
XRP above $3.50 on July 25? Aug 08 $170 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K July 14–20? Jul 25 $167 +$1 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? Jul 18 $200 +$1 +0%
Will 'Bring Her Back' gross between $3.5-4.5m opening weekend? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be fewer than 30 million in South Korean election? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland? Jun 19 $122 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23? Jun 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 17 $96 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? May 17 $50 +$71 +142%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 16-20m on its opening weekend? Mar 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28? Mar 03 $86 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17? Feb 28 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 13 $118 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Dec 12 $106 $0 -0%
House control after 2024 election? Dec 11 $6 +$6 +92%
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? Nov 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $170 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $210 10d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $151 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $170 42d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $140 42d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $211 42d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $200 65d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $160 83d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $144 83d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 83d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $233 85d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $259 85d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $340 114d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? BUY No 99¢ $140 114d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 135d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 BUY No 99¢ $182 135d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $290 147d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $188 147d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 164d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $277 164d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 9? SELL No $2 196d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 9? BUY No 99¢ $321 196d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $249 196d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 9? BUY No 100¢ $150 196d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in November? BUY No 100¢ $700 207d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $376 224d
XRP Up or Down on November 11? BUY Down 97¢ $146 224d
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? BUY No 99¢ $170 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $533.26 · official $533.26 (match) · 112 history records