Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b28…2dc0 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$64
crypto 5% −$37
world 2% −$2
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -19.8% -27.4% 60% 50% -19.1%
≤30d 11 -27.1% -34.0% 55% 45% -19.4%
≤90d 12 -24.7% -31.9% 58% 42% -19.2%
all 13 -30.5% -37.1% 54% 38% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 38% -23.2%
10% -43.2% 31% -30.6%
15% -48.6% 23% -37.3%
20% -53.7% 8% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$30 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage179d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $47 +$18 +39%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $326 +$7 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $146 +$33 +22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 27? Dec 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $83 8h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $47 31h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $51 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $315 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $295 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $18 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $133 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $11 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY MOUZ 7¢ $3 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 27? BUY No 35¢ $37 176d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 88¢ $12 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.33 · official $27.33 (match) · 120 history records