Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b26…88a3 crypto 1024 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-3%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate76%778W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day73.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$27
14 days−$97
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$82
other 11% −$40
finance 1% +$4
sports 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 355 -0.4% -9.9% 83% 57% -13.7%
≤30d 1019 -2.7% -11.9% 76% 56% -13.5%
≤90d 1019 -2.7% -11.9% 76% 56% -13.5%
all 1019 -2.7% -11.9% 76% 56% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 56% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 26% -21.7%
15% -28.1% 13% -29.3%
20% -35.1% 6% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses778 / 241
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1019 / 1024
History coverage25d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day73.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1019 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 66¢ 92¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 165 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 43m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 51m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.09 · official $8.29 · 2206 history records