Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b26…42f1 crypto 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2449 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,931 (+13%) realized +$1,936 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%125W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2449.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,892now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2449 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 295 -17.9% -25.7% 42% 32% -19.6%
≤30d 295 -17.9% -25.7% 42% 32% -19.6%
≤90d 295 -17.9% -25.7% 42% 32% -19.6%
all 295 -17.9% -25.7% 42% 32% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2449.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 32% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 24% -27.3%
15% -39.3% 17% -34.3%
20% -45.3% 10% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,892
Realized+$1,936
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses125 / 170
Open positions2
Markets (closed)295 / 232
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2449.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 93¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 83¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $517 −$517 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $216 −$216 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $206 −$206 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $11 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,891.92 · official $1,889.82 (match) · 3500 history records