Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b20…f21f crypto 728 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-0%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate91%662W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$40
14 days+$57
30 days−$773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$299
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +5.7% -4.3% 90% 20% -7.3%
≤30d 192 -2.5% -11.7% 89% 15% -14.7%
≤90d 676 +0.0% -9.5% 92% 18% -10.2%
all 728 -0.5% -10.0% 91% 18% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 18% -10.2%
10% -18.6% 6% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 3% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$43 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses662 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)728 / 728
History coverage184d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 728 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1489 history records