Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:10:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b20…2f94 sports 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,969 (-50%) realized −$4,006 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%24W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$651
7 days+$320
14 days−$3,810
30 days−$3,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$4,717
sports 32% +$291
other 8% +$657
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -17.6% -25.5% 21% 21% +4.8%
≤30d 102 +7.0% -3.2% 24% 24% -55.9%
≤90d 102 +7.0% -3.2% 24% 24% -55.9%
all 102 +7.0% -3.2% 24% 24% -55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 24% -55.9%
10% -12.4% 24% -60.1%
15% -20.9% 24% -64.0%
20% -28.6% 23% -67.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$79 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized−$4,006
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses24 / 78
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions11
Markets (closed)102 / 113
History coverage596d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $161 $197 +$36 (+22%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 50¢ $55 $52 −$3 (-5%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Over 18¢ 16¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Egypt 7¢ 16¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+128%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 22¢ 20¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-10%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Over 9¢ 8¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Over 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Over 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 +$74 +348%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $21 +$41 +195%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $131 +$53 +40%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $21 +$145 +681%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $53 −$50 -94%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 +$114 +214%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $158 +$99 +63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $74 −$70 -94%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $265 +$376 +142%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -94%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $105 −$100 -95%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $74 −$70 -94%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 +$41 +195%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $16 +$36 +225%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $27 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $58 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $27 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $27 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 9¢ $7 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 4¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $21 1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY Egypt 7¢ $11 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $131 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $21 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $21 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 17¢ $53 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 12¢ $21 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $21 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $21 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $11 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 21¢ $11 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $21 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $27 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 28h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $5 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $53 33h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $16 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $105 36h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $53 38h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.77 · official $391.77 (match) · 164 history records