Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b1d…960d world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 52L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$4
other 23% +$11
politics 17% −$2
sports 15% −$9
economics 6% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 25 +81.3% +64.0% 40% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 74 +33.5% +20.8% 31% 5% -9.2%
all 79 +32.6% +20.0% 34% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.0% 6% -9.3%
10% +8.5% 4% -17.9%
15% -2.0% 4% -25.9%
20% -11.6% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 52
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage529d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $16 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $13 +$1 +7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $70 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $292 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $116 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $208 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $46 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $22 +$3 +14%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $2 +$1 +32%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $44 −$2 -5%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 18 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $48 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $119 −$1 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $47 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $2 +$12 +469%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $38 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $13 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $24 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 29h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $50 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $10 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $55 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $55 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $22 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.38 · official $33.34 (match) · 370 history records