Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b1c…0256 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$112 (-19%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate68%25W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$95
other 10% −$25
sports 5% +$30
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +15.0% +4.0% 68% 54% -23.5%
≤30d 37 +15.0% +4.0% 68% 54% -23.5%
≤90d 37 +15.0% +4.0% 68% 54% -23.5%
all 37 +15.0% +4.0% 68% 54% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 54% -23.5%
10% -5.9% 38% -30.9%
15% -15.0% 35% -37.5%
20% -23.3% 27% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses25 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Yes 42¢ 41¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$9 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $112 −$111 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $22 +$10 +48%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$8 +388%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $24 +$6 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $31 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 48m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 92 history records