Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2B 0x2b1b…00a1 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$236 (+46%) realized +$234 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$217
14 days+$217
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$182
other 39% +$39
world 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +44.0% +30.3% 58% 58% +32.4%
≤30d 25 +42.7% +29.1% 60% 56% +32.0%
≤90d 25 +42.7% +29.1% 60% 56% +32.0%
all 25 +42.7% +29.1% 60% 56% +32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.1% 56% +32.0%
10% +16.7% 56% +19.4%
15% +5.4% 56% +7.9%
20% -4.9% 44% -2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +60% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$234
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage23d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$15 -24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$24 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$62 +152%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$32 +309%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$10 -66%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 +$19 +123%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$21 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $21 +$23 +110%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $12 +$28 +237%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 +$10 +56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$25 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $24 +$10 +41%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 25 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 36¢ $27 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $41 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $19 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 12h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $15 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $15 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 32h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $25 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 34h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 20¢ $5 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 36h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 88¢ $44 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $21 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $16 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.26 · official $42.26 (match) · 62 history records