Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b1a…5614 crypto 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+3%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%67W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day88.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +8.3% -2.0% 65% 54% -11.1%
≤30d 103 +8.3% -2.0% 65% 54% -11.1%
≤90d 103 +8.3% -2.0% 65% 54% -11.1%
all 103 +8.3% -2.0% 65% 54% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 54% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.4% 41% -19.6%
15% -19.9% 27% -27.4%
20% -27.8% 19% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses67 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day88.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$9 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$23 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $56 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $31 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 395 history records