Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2B 0x2b19…727e other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$101 (+20%) realized +$99 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$98
sports 34% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +25.1% +13.2% 60% 60% +46.6%
≤30d 5 +25.1% +13.2% 60% 60% +46.6%
≤90d 5 +25.1% +13.2% 60% 60% +46.6%
all 5 +25.1% +13.2% 60% 60% +46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.2% 60% +46.6%
10% +2.4% 60% +32.6%
15% -7.5% 60% +19.8%
20% -16.6% 40% +8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$30 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.25 per $1 lost it wins $5.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 66¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $73 +$159 +216%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $166 +$107 +65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $114 +$51 +45%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $101 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 31¢ $63 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 31¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $64 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $73 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $41 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $16 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.31 · official $102.31 (match) · 13 history records