Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2b17…0c09 sports 294 markets active 2d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$431 (+5%) realized +$431 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%127W / 167L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$41
14 days−$91
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -48.4% -53.3% 17% 17% -24.1%
≤30d 92 -21.9% -29.4% 34% 32% -20.5%
≤90d 294 +2.7% -7.1% 43% 39% -6.8%
all 294 +2.7% -7.1% 43% 39% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 39% -6.8%
10% -16.0% 35% -15.7%
15% -24.1% 33% -23.9%
20% -31.6% 31% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$17 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$431
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses127 / 167
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions0
Markets (closed)294 / 294
History coverage73d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 294 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$39 +129%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 +$43 +106%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$1 -3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $33 −$33 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $35 −$11 -30%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$7 -22%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$2 -8%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 10 $31 −$26 -85%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $41 −$32 -78%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $33 −$3 -9%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$12 -24%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 07 $31 +$6 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$24 +238%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $35 −$19 -54%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $36 +$32 +91%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $31 +$38 +125%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $87 −$53 -61%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $26 −$7 -27%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 02 $40 −$26 -65%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $20 −$18 -88%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 02 $27 −$14 -54%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 02 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $15 +$20 +134%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $41 +$36 +90%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $30 +$1 +4%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $36 +$35 +99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $25 +$24 +95%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $30 −$2 -6%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $40 +$5 +13%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $40 +$25 +61%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$25 +250%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $14 −$9 -61%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner May 27 $49 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 43¢ $31 41h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 7¢ $1 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 8¢ $3 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 56¢ $30 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 20¢ $6 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $49 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 3¢ $1 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $30 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $33 5d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Heretics Academy 40¢ $24 5d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 57¢ $35 5d
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL WLGaming Esports 42¢ $24 5d
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY WLGaming Esports 53¢ $30 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 48¢ $27 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 48¢ $30 5d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner SELL PCIFIC 4¢ $3 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner SELL PCIFIC 23¢ $6 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY PCIFIC 30¢ $15 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY PCIFIC 52¢ $25 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 10¢ $1 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Heretics Academy 100¢ $50 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 8¢ $3 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 59¢ $30 6d
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Frites Esports Club 25¢ $8 7d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL Karmine Corp 8¢ $5 9d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 32¢ $31 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster 29¢ $10 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 36¢ $20 9d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY FURIA Esports 34¢ $12 10d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 43¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 788 history records