Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b14…d8c0 world 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%31W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$16
sports 18% −$2
other 17% +$3
politics 16% −$1
economics 4% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 24 -4.1% -13.2% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 76 -2.1% -11.5% 20% 1% -9.8%
all 108 -3.7% -12.9% 29% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses31 / 77
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage543d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 51¢ 36¢ $32 $22 −$10 (-30%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 63¢ 62¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $35 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $141 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $44 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $96 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $126 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $94 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $51 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $7 $0 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $29 −$6 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $36 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $114 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 $0 -22%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $68 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $108 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $71 −$1 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $46 $0 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $4 $0 +12%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $83 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $35 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $35 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $27 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $35 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.12 · official $23.56 · 411 history records