Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b0a…f25d other 14 markets active 22h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-25%) realized −$24 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$31
14 days−$27
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$11
sports 22% +$3
world 18% −$20
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 50% -63.1%
≤30d 12 -14.3% -22.4% 58% 58% -32.1%
≤90d 12 -14.3% -22.4% 58% 58% -32.1%
all 12 -14.3% -22.4% 58% 58% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 58% -32.1%
10% -29.9% 42% -38.6%
15% -36.6% 33% -44.5%
20% -42.9% 8% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage16d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +128%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $9 +$4 +42%
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana Jun 04 $1 $0 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $4 −$2 -60%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 31 $21 +$5 +22%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 $0 +32%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 52¢ $7 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 9d
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 17¢ $10 10d
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia BUY Simona Waltert 29¢ $2 12d
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana SELL Mary Stoiana 48¢ $1 12d
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana BUY Mary Stoiana 40¢ $1 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes $2 14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 14d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes $2 14d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 64¢ $1 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 47¢ $1 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Iva Jovic $1 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 59¢ $2 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka SELL Iva Jovic 44¢ $2 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Iva Jovic 36¢ $2 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka SELL Iva Jovic 50¢ $5 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Iva Jovic 43¢ $2 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Iva Jovic 44¢ $2 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka SELL Iva Jovic 41¢ $11 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Iva Jovic 23¢ $3 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Iva Jovic 37¢ $3 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Iva Jovic 42¢ $3 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka SELL Iva Jovic 55¢ $1 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 58¢ $3 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.18 · official $11.18 (match) · 38 history records