Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b09…1c00 other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$38
sports 24% −$18
politics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$7
economics 7% −$6
world 4% −$3
crypto 4% −$4
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage127d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 98¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $490 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $153 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $329 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $286 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $495 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $560 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $141 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $351 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $377 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $455 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $174 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $132 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $204 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $196 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $207 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 04 $128 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $213 −$2 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $172 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $344 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $48 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 4h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 11h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $48 12h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 20h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 21h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 27h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 28h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $48 30h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 31h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $14 31h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $34 33h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 34h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 36h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 38h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 42h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 43h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 45h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $32 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.49 · official $47.49 (match) · 1344 history records