Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b09…3408 crypto 1275 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6,454 (+6%) realized +$6,454 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate54%863W / 748L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day61.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,748
other 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 587 -60.5% -64.3% 22% 22% -56.4%
≤30d 968 -31.0% -37.6% 40% 35% -24.2%
≤90d 1611 -18.1% -25.9% 54% 35% -15.1%
all 1611 -18.1% -25.9% 54% 35% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 35% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 27% -23.2%
15% -39.5% 19% -30.6%
20% -45.4% 13% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$25 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,454
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses863 / 748
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1611 / 1275
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$81
Trades / day61.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1611 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $83 −$83 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $83 −$83 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $47 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $43 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $44 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $29 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records