Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b05…c45a sports 409 markets active 0h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$123 (-8%) realized −$121 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%163W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$46
crypto 27% −$24
other 11% −$32
politics 7% −$87
world 1% −$12
economics 1% −$15
tech 0% −$8
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -37.5% -43.5% 21% 21% -32.3%
≤30d 14 -37.5% -43.5% 21% 21% -32.3%
≤90d 22 -60.2% -64.0% 14% 14% -58.3%
all 403 -7.8% -16.6% 40% 36% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 36% -16.8%
10% -24.6% 35% -24.7%
15% -31.9% 34% -32.0%
20% -38.6% 34% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses163 / 240
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)403 / 409
History coverage207d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals No 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +325%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearanc Apr 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Equipment" during National Agriculture Day events? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iowa" during National Agriculture Day events? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during National Agriculture Day e Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" during National Agriculture Day events? Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Gold Card" or "Trump card" during the 2026 State of th Feb 26 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 26 $1 +$4 +400%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarch Feb 13 $1 +$5 +422%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Paycheck to Paycheck" during the Fighting Oli Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? Feb 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 08 $25 −$21 -82%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%? Feb 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during January press conference? Jan 29 $4 +$4 +111%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $11 −$11 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 26 $5 −$2 -49%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 25 $15 −$13 -86%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jan 24 $4 −$4 -94%
Will André Ventura win the second round? Jan 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 0–10%? Jan 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during NewsNation interview? Jan 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" during the Board of Peace Charter Announcement? Jan 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $5 +$8 +138%
Will J.D. Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" in Ohio on Thursday? Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $4 +$16 +455%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Over 39¢ $0 28m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 29m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 29m
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $0 30m
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 37m
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 37¢ $1 1h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 28¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 22h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 70¢ $4 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $2 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $2 33h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 40¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 9¢ $3 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.11 · official $6.35 · 802 history records