trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +400.0% | +352.4% | 100% | 100% | +352.4% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +400.0% | +352.4% | 100% | 100% | +352.4% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +400.0% | +352.4% | 100% | 100% | +352.4% |
| all | 13 | +163.6% | +138.5% | 69% | 46% | +53.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +138.5% | 46% | +53.3% |
| 10% | +115.7% | 31% | +38.6% |
| 15% | +94.8% | 23% | +25.2% |
| 20% | +75.7% | 23% | +13.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $22 | −$8 (-25%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 'Emilia Pérez' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Jun 22 | $25 | +$100 | +400% |
| Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? | Jan 20 | $14 | +$31 | +210% |
| Will 'Conclave' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score? | Jan 05 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Ariana Grande win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - | Jan 05 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Jan 05 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| GPT-5 released in 2024? | Jan 05 | $4 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? | Jan 05 | $4 | $0 | +4% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Jan 05 | $5 | +$1 | +16% |
| Will Trump say "cognitively impaired" during North Carolina rally on N | Jan 05 | $12 | +$7 | +54% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in October? | Nov 02 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Fuad Noman win the 2024 Belo Horizonte mayoral election? | Nov 02 | $5 | +$1 | +18% |
| Will Moldova's EU membership referendum pass? | Oct 26 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Who will lead on Silver Bulletin on Friday? | Oct 26 | $13 | +$4 | +30% |