Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2B 0x2b03…4343 weather 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$41 (+6%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%20W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$35
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$32
other 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +61.0% +45.7% 52% 41% -6.2%
≤30d 39 +50.2% +35.9% 51% 38% -7.6%
≤90d 39 +50.2% +35.9% 51% 38% -7.6%
all 39 +50.2% +35.9% 51% 38% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.9% 38% -7.6%
10% +22.9% 31% -16.5%
15% +11.1% 31% -24.5%
20% +0.2% 26% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +108% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses20 / 19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)39 / 44
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$6 +73%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $19 +$11 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 +$4 +176%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $16 +$6 +36%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $101 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $9 +$6 +68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +57%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 +$16 +488%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$6 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$48 +3112%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +41%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$26 +475%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $18 +$34 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 0m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $99 0m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 2m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $149 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 59¢ $9 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 59¢ $20 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $19 30h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 56¢ $22 41h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 44¢ $112 42h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 39¢ $97 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 39¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 58¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.73 · official $9.73 (match) · 128 history records