Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2B 0x2b02…51ab tech 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$17 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 36% +$16
finance 33% +$11
crypto 31% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 9 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,060
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage72d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $455 $456 +$2 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $283 $288 +$5 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $216 $220 +$3 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? Jun 10 $186 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 10 $266 +$2 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 10 $295 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 10 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 08 $178 +$1 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 08 $199 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 08 $203 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 08 $214 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 08 $236 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,059.79 · official $1,059.79 (match) · 25 history records