Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2A 0x2aff…0b7d crypto 306 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%143W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$49
14 days+$29
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$56
sports 9% +$57
world 9% +$31
other 3% −$15
politics 2% −$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.0% -26.7% 38% 12% -23.8%
≤30d 97 -47.9% -52.8% 23% 19% -30.6%
≤90d 305 -2.7% -12.0% 47% 35% -9.5%
all 305 -2.7% -12.0% 47% 35% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 35% -9.5%
10% -20.4% 24% -18.2%
15% -28.1% 18% -26.1%
20% -35.1% 17% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses143 / 162
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)305 / 306
History coverage78d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 44¢ 62¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 18 $61 −$4 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +55%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 14 $30 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $35 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $61 −$3 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $40 +$4 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $30 +$19 +62%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $30 +$30 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $30 +$26 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $41 −$11 -28%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $15 $0 -3%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $10 +$9 +90%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $20 +$1 +4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $10 +$9 +86%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 31 $26 −$2 -7%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $5 +$3 +65%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $10 −$5 -49%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $5 +$4 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 29 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL No 56¢ $28 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $24 11h
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY No 58¢ $31 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 34h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $37 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $23 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 66¢ $30 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 65¢ $30 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $30 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $31 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $30 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $31 6d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 62¢ $30 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $30 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 8d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 62¢ $30 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 89¢ $49 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 9d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL No 54¢ $29 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 55¢ $30 10d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 53¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.62 · official $42.62 (match) · 1530 history records