Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2A 0x2afc…23c9 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$339 (-12%) realized −$355 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$469per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$394
other 47% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-71.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -68.9% -71.8% 25% 25% -61.5%
≤30d 4 -68.9% -71.8% 25% 25% -61.5%
≤90d 4 -68.9% -71.8% 25% 25% -61.5%
all 4 -68.9% -71.8% 25% 25% -61.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.8% 25% -61.5%
10% -74.5% 25% -65.2%
15% -77.0% 0% -68.5%
20% -79.2% 0% -71.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$137 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,392
Realized−$355
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage5d
Avg bet$469
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 54¢ 55¢ $1,072 $1,090 +$18 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $305 $302 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,002 +$53 +5%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $93 −$92 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $52 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $334 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $309 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $752 13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $46 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $5 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $9 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $12 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $81 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $11 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $69 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $1 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $37 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $71 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $32 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $714 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $214 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $161 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $269 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $547 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $93 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,392.50 · official $1,392.50 (match) · 22 history records