Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2A 0x2afc…0807 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$270 (-2%) realized −$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%49W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$17
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% +$10
other 32% +$41
tech 12% +$15
politics 9% +$17
world 5% +$7
sports 3% −$361
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 24 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 38 -1.9% -11.2% 95% 0% -12.0%
all 53 -1.4% -10.8% 92% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -11.0%
10% -19.3% 0% -19.5%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$94 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses49 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage133d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $155 $156 +$1 (+0%)
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading Jun 18 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $114 +$5 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $95 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $189 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 6? Jun 06 $125 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 5? Jun 05 $112 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $131 +$6 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $112 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $106 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $129 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $159 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $391 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? May 30 $69 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $219 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026? May 26 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on May 24? May 24 $170 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? May 24 $221 −$2 -1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $60 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $252 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $108 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $386 +$5 +1%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 17? May 18 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 16? May 17 $88 $0 +0%
US announces shutdown of Gaza military center by May 15? May 16 $384 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 12? May 12 $230 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 12? May 12 $150 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $361 −$361 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May May 01 $353 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 01 $1,156 +$16 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 April 6-12? Apr 13 $1,154 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on April 6? Apr 08 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on April 6? Apr 08 $563 +$1 +0%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Apr 03 $368 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 03 $765 +$13 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 22 $358 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $50 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $155? Mar 07 $218 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 05 $119 −$11 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 05 $118 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 05 $750 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 23 above $165? Feb 28 $337 +$3 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of February 23 above $385? Feb 28 $500 +$7 +2%
Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in February? Feb 27 $291 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15? Feb 26 $795 +$3 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 February 9-15? Feb 26 $319 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $155 1h
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 97¢ $300 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $100 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 10d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $128 13d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $80 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 13d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 91¢ $14 13d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 13d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $125 16d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $112 16d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $129 16d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? SELL No 100¢ $114 16d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $131 17d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $119 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 97¢ $112 17d
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 20d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 20d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $159 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $394 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $391 20d
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $69 24d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $219 24d
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 26d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $29 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.99 · official $402.99 (match) · 121 history records