Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2A 0x2afc…495c crypto 1609 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$209 (+2%) realized +$171 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%785W / 823L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$126
30 days+$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$73
sports 18% +$105
other 8% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.7% -11.1% 85% 23% -7.6%
≤30d 208 -14.0% -22.2% 52% 31% -3.6%
≤90d 1608 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 44% -7.9%
all 1608 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 44% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 44% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 41% -16.7%
15% -30.0% 38% -24.8%
20% -36.9% 30% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses785 / 823
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1608 / 1609
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1608 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 79¢ 87¢ $400 $438 +$38 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $400 +$1 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $402 +$66 +16%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$19 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $112 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -56%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $500 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $402 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 97¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 9¢ $1 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $10 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $10 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 11¢ $21 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 100¢ $400 7d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $119 8d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 8d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $437.58 · official $437.58 (match) · 3500 history records