Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2afa…61f6 sports 1687 markets active 1d ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$354 (-10%) realized −$354 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%810W / 877L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$87
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$228
other 11% −$4
world 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -5.5% -14.5% 51% 51% -14.9%
≤30d 504 +0.1% -9.5% 55% 54% -10.6%
≤90d 1687 -5.7% -14.7% 48% 46% -15.3%
all 1687 -5.7% -14.7% 48% 46% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 46% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 44% -23.4%
15% -30.3% 40% -30.8%
20% -37.2% 33% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$354
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses810 / 877
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1687 / 1687
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1687 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $3 +$1 +58%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $2 +$3 +126%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $2 +$3 +101%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 +$2 +77%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2 +$3 +137%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $2 +$3 +124%
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +58%
Muchova vs. Osaka: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 27 $3 $0 -3%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $2 +$3 +114%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 +$2 +61%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $2 +$3 +132%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 26 $3 +$3 +99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $3 +$2 +70%
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 25 $3 +$3 +101%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $3 +$2 +82%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +36%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +42%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley Jun 24 $2 +$1 +38%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +44%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $3 +$3 +112%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $2 +$2 +75%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 23 $2 +$1 +84%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 24h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 25h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 26h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 96¢ $5 28h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $2 28h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 28h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $2 28h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 28h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 29h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 98¢ $5 29h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 47¢ $2 29h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $2 29h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 30h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 30h
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 30h
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 30h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 30h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 30h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $3 33h
Muchova vs. Osaka: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 41h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 98¢ $5 47h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 99¢ $6 2d
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 97¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records