Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2A 0x2afa…2979 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$11
other 30% +$2
politics 5% $0
sports 5% +$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.6% -3.6% 22% 11% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +6.6% -3.5% 41% 24% -7.1%
≤90d 20 +5.7% -4.4% 35% 20% -7.5%
all 41 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 10% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 10% -8.0%
10% -17.7% 2% -16.8%
15% -25.6% 2% -24.8%
20% -32.9% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage461d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $46 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -22%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +82%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $65 +$3 +4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $44 +$5 +11%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $2 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $19 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $38 +$6 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 09 $14 $0 -1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 08 $15 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 05 $15 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on March 26? Mar 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 19? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 19 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $37 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $6 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $7 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $4 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $33 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $7 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $7 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $1 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $32 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $12 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $46 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $33 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $33 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $1 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $26 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $31 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records