Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2A 0x2afa…27bb other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$73 · open +$59

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$122per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-8.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+0.7%	-8.9%	67%	67%	+2.8%
≤30d	3	+0.7%	-8.9%	67%	67%	+2.8%
≤90d	3	+0.7%	-8.9%	67%	67%	+2.8%
all	3	+0.7%	-8.9%	67%	67%	+2.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.9%	67%	+2.8%
10%	-17.6%	67%	-7.0%
15%	-25.5%	67%	-16.0%
20%	-32.8%	33%	-24.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$77 vs −$100 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$141

Realized−$73

Unrealized+$59

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$122

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	58¢	100¢	$82	$141	+$59 (+72%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$152	+$76	+50%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$152	+$79	+52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	−$100	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	58¢	$83	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$152	20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$152	25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.31 · official $141.31 (match) · 6 history records