Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2A 0x2afa…a29e sports 470 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$42 · open −$34
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%180W / 278L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$36
14 days−$148
30 days−$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$258
other 22% +$148
world 5% +$40
crypto 5% −$30
tech 3% −$62
politics 0% −$7
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -20.6% -28.2% 41% 34% -13.0%
≤30d 215 -21.8% -29.3% 32% 28% -18.7%
≤90d 458 -10.0% -18.6% 39% 36% -11.1%
all 458 -10.0% -18.6% 39% 36% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 36% -11.1%
10% -26.4% 31% -19.6%
15% -33.5% 25% -27.4%
20% -40.0% 19% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses180 / 278
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions12
Markets (closed)458 / 470
History coverage85d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner GLYPH 68¢ 56¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-18%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+23%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 50¢ $39 $7 −$32 (-82%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 18¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-55%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $81 +$3 +4%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 22 $21 −$9 -42%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 −$1 -10%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$8 -38%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $20 −$3 -13%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 +$8 +51%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$7 -66%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 20 $28 +$6 +21%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$13 +64%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57.5 and 58 million views in wee Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $8 +$3 +34%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$2 +30%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $10 +$7 +70%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$2 +34%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 +$2 +205%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 19 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +130%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $2 +$2 +88%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $6 +$6 +104%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $1 +$2 +172%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $24 +$12 +50%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $60 −$8 -13%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $6 +$5 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 68¢ $30 37m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 59m
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL GLYPH 83¢ $84 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 79¢ $81 1h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $12 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 59¢ $20 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 5h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 15¢ $5 6h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 16¢ $5 6h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $5 6h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner SELL Carstensz 30¢ $13 29h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 46¢ $20 29h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As SELL Grind Back 59¢ $18 29h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 SELL Under 89¢ $23 30h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 30h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 30h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 30h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 67¢ $20 30h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $1 40h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 17¢ $3 40h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $5 40h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $10 40h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 69¢ $10 47h
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) BUY InterActive Philippines 20¢ $5 47h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL REKONIX 95¢ $33 47h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 57¢ $20 47h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57.5 and 58 million views in wee BUY Yes $1 47h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No $2 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.98 · official $74.98 (match) · 1154 history records