Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2A 0x2af0…bbca crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate76%37W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$8
sports 41% −$171
other 1% +$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 31 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 6% -11.8%
all 49 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 18% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 18% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 18% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 18% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 16% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$63 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses37 / 12
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage142d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 28 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 18 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 15 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 13 $78 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 11 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? May 08 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 05 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 04 $77 $0 +0%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 27 $58 −$2 -4%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 23 $73 −$72 -99%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 21 $84 −$83 -99%
Kings vs. Flames Apr 17 $66 +$87 +133%
Ducks vs. Wild Apr 14 $89 −$89 -100%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $71 +$89 +126%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Mar 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $98 $0 +0%
Flames vs. Capitals Mar 10 $96 +$56 +59%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 05 $97 +$59 +61%
Oilers vs. Sharks Mar 02 $61 +$88 +144%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 27? Feb 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $43 +$145 +335%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 26 $92 +$72 +79%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 19 $144 −$72 -50%
Michigan Wolverines vs. Purdue Boilermakers Feb 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Southeastern Louisiana Lions vs. East Texas A&M Lions Feb 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $13 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Feb 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Kings vs. Pelicans Feb 08 $70 −$70 -100%
Nuggets vs. Knicks Feb 04 $42 −$42 -100%
Kings vs. Flyers Feb 02 $94 +$83 +89%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Jan 29 $108 +$49 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $84 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $84 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $84 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $84 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $83 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $83 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $83 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $82 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $82 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $82 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $81 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $80 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $79 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $78 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $77 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $77 49d
Ducks vs. Oilers SELL Ducks 39¢ $56 52d
Ducks vs. Oilers BUY Ducks 40¢ $58 52d
Hurricanes vs. Senators BUY Senators 53¢ $73 56d
Ducks vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 64¢ $84 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.17 · official $84.17 (match) · 91 history records