Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2af0…3314 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1
politics 32% $0
other 17% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 4% −$1
economics 3% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 17% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 23% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 23% 0% -9.2%
all 50 -1.2% -10.6% 26% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage270d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $33 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 31 $3 $0 -7%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 09 $1 $0 -15%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 07 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $17 $0 +2%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 02 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 01 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $25 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $37 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $4 $0 -7%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $1 $0 -7%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $39 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $21 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $39 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $3 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $36 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $36 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $33 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $8 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $25 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $34 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $35 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records