trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 28? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $67 | $0 | −$67 (-100%) |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $520 | $0 | −$520 (-100%) |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $434 | $0 | −$434 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 14 | $115 | +$282 | +246% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by May 15? | Apr 24 | $13,843 | +$1,091 | +8% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 26? | Apr 24 | $397 | +$630 | +159% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? | Apr 24 | $16,887 | +$10,353 | +61% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 24 | $523 | −$520 | -99% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 28? | Apr 24 | $91 | −$60 | -66% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? | Apr 24 | $1,805 | −$58 | -3% |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | Apr 23 | $480 | +$78 | +16% |
| Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? | Apr 23 | $548 | +$80 | +15% |
| Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026? | Apr 23 | $769 | +$51 | +7% |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 22 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? | Apr 22 | $44 | +$56 | +127% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? | Apr 22 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | Apr 22 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Apr 19 | $64 | +$4 | +6% |
| Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the | Apr 19 | $8 | −$3 | -33% |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? | Apr 19 | $193 | +$2 | +1% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | Apr 19 | $1,010 | +$1,740 | +172% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 7? | Apr 08 | $1,523 | +$24 | +2% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? | Apr 07 | $11,660 | +$1,810 | +16% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? | Mar 24 | $20,481 | +$7,863 | +38% |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M | Mar 07 | $10 | +$10 | +90% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +246.0% | +213.0% | 100% | 100% | +213.0% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +108.4% | +88.5% | 67% | 43% | +13.1% |
| all | 22 | +107.6% | +87.8% | 68% | 45% | +13.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +87.8% | 45% | +13.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +69.8% | 32% | +2.2% |
| 15% | +53.4% | 32% | -7.6% |
| 20% | +38.4% | 27% | -16.7% |