Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2A 0x2aec…5cf4 crypto 804 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,397 (+5%) realized +$6,397 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate94%758W / 46L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day62.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$680
7 days+$2,443
14 days+$4,018
30 days+$4,437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,409
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 +7.7% -2.5% 100% 15% -2.2%
≤30d 475 +5.4% -4.6% 96% 17% -5.8%
≤90d 804 +5.4% -4.6% 94% 20% -5.9%
all 804 +5.4% -4.6% 94% 20% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 20% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 11% -14.9%
15% -22.1% 7% -23.1%
20% -29.7% 5% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$196 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,397
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses758 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)804 / 804
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$166
Trades / day62.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 804 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $399 +$27 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $211 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $144 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $401 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $403 +$42 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $303 +$149 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $401 +$31 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $88 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $150 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $150 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $200 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $211 +$62 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $302 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $401 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $202 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $400 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $400 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $300 +$46 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $301 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $313 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $400 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $89 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $126 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $400 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $336 +$49 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $252 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $401 +$83 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $244 +$31 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $200 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $90 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $44 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $43 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $39 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $96 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $45 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $201 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $88 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $204 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $22 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $78 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records