Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2ae5…63f3 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$626 (+12%) realized +$631 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%21W / 12L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$637
politics 3% +$2
sports 2% −$9
economics 2% +$14
other 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +83.5% +66.0% 100% 100% +66.0%
≤30d 10 +34.1% +21.4% 70% 70% +6.9%
≤90d 19 +12.1% +1.4% 68% 47% -1.0%
all 33 +3.1% -6.7% 64% 45% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 45% +1.9%
10% -15.6% 42% -7.9%
15% -23.8% 36% -16.8%
20% -31.3% 33% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$142 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$631
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses21 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage310d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $97 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$85 +84%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $130 +$130 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $102 +$29 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 29 $372 −$361 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 29 $244 −$173 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 29 $46 +$14 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 29 $275 +$270 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 27 $83 +$170 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET May 06 $103 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 06 $106 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9PM ET May 06 $50 +$55 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET May 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 05 $71 +$34 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 16 $114 −$112 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 16 $104 +$11 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 24 $38 −$38 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 24 $140 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 19 $105 −$104 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 18 $876 +$638 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 18 $437 +$439 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 18 $184 +$253 +137%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 18 $182 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 18 $700 −$700 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 18 $100 +$76 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 18 $15 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 26? Dec 26 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 1? Nov 01 $53 −$53 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 01 $100 +$14 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $98 49m
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 54m
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 54m
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $174 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $102 1h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $8 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $150 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $147 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.09 · official $178.09 (match) · 144 history records