Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2ae3…34f9 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate58%22W / 16L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$3
other 22% +$1
sports 4% $0
politics 3% −$2
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.0% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 15 +4.2% -5.7% 40% 13% -8.8%
≤90d 15 +4.2% -5.7% 40% 13% -8.8%
all 38 +21.6% +10.1% 58% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 8% -9.1%
10% -0.5% 5% -17.8%
15% -10.1% 5% -25.7%
20% -18.9% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses22 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage471d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $16 +$2 +11%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $2 $0 -10%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 +10%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Apr 03 $4 −$2 -39%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $2 $0 +7%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will 'Black Bag' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $15 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $14 $0 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $14 $0 -0%
Zelenskyy puts on a suit by Friday? Mar 11 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $18 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $16 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $25 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $32 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $32 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records